by Calculated Danger on 1/01/2025 12:40:00 PM
Earlier I posted some questions on my weblog for subsequent 12 months: Ten Financial Questions for 2025. A few of these questions concern actual property (stock, home costs, housing begins, new dwelling gross sales), and I posted ideas on these within the e-newsletter (others like GDP and employment will likely be on this weblog).
I am including some ideas and predictions for every query.
Here’s a overview of the Ten Financial Questions for 2024.
3) Unemployment Fee: The unemployment charge was at 4.2% in November, up from 3.7% in November 2023. At present the FOMC is projecting the unemployment charge will improve to the 4.2% to 4.5% vary in This autumn 2025. What’s going to the unemployment charge be in December 2025?
Be aware the interval within the late ’60s when the unemployment charge was principally beneath 4% for 4 consecutive years. That interval led to late 1969 with a recession.
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
The unemployment charge is from the family survey (CPS), and the speed elevated in November to 4.2%, up from 3.7% in November 2023.
Forecasting the unemployment charge contains forecasts for financial and payroll progress, and likewise for modifications within the participation charge (earlier query).
