EPU by yesterday, and VIX as of 2pm as we speak:
Determine 1: EPU (blue, left scale) and seven day centered transferring common (purple, left scale), and VIX (inexperienced, proper scale). 1/6 statement for VIX is as of 2pm ET. Supply: policyuncertainty.com and CBOE by way of FRED.Â
Why the bounce in EPU? Perhaps Trump’s backtracking on common tariffs? Then backtracking on that backtracking will presumably preserve EPU up for the 1/6/2025 statement…
And right here’s the Baker, Bloom and Davis categorical EPU by December:
Determine 2: Commerce Coverage Uncertainty (blue). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: policyuncertainty.com, and NBER.
Welcome to 2025.
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