The Bureau of Financial Evaluation introduced right now that seasonally adjusted U.S. actual GDP grew at a 2.3% annual fee within the fourth quarter. That’s just a little beneath the historic common fee of three.1% since World Battle II, however about equal to the typical 2.4% fee since 2009:Q3.
Quarterly actual GDP development at an annual fee, 1947:Q2-2024:This autumn, with the historic common since 1947 (3.1%) in blue. Calculated as 400 occasions the distinction within the pure log of actual GDP from the earlier quarter.
The brand new numbers put the Econbrowser recession indicator index coincidentally additionally at 2.3%, signalling that the growth that started in 2020:Q3 continued no less than via the tip of the Biden presidency.

GDP-based recession indicator index. The plotted worth for every date is predicated solely on the GDP numbers that had been publicly out there as of 1 quarter after the indicated date, with 2024:Q3 the final date proven on the graph. Shaded areas characterize the NBER’s dates for recessions, which dates weren’t utilized in any method in establishing the index.
Shopper purchases alone may account for greater than the entire GDP development. A number of the additional consumption spending was met by drawing down inventories slightly than new manufacturing. Decrease nonresidential fastened funding additionally held GDP again.