All present beneficial properties since January 2023, save the CPS primarily based.
Determine 1: Cumulative change in NFP employment based on CES (daring black), implied preliminary benchmark (blue), early benchmark (tan), Goldman Sachs estimate (gentle blue sq.), CPS adjusted to NFP idea (teal), QCEW complete coated, nsa (darkish crimson), and QCEW seasonally adjusted by writer utilizing X-13 (in logs) (salmon), all in 000’s. Supply: BLS through FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
Be aware that the CPS collection adjusted to NFP can be downwardly biased if the general CPS collection is downwardly biased. That is doubtless the case, as mentioned right here.
so… not but time to panic about recession, not less than by NFP employment figures.
