The “Home ATM” Principally Closed in Q3

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by Calculated Danger on 12/12/2024 01:05:00 PM

Right now, within the Calculated Danger Actual Property E-newsletter: The “Home ATM” Principally Closed in Q3

A quick excerpt:

Throughout the housing bubble, many owners borrowed closely in opposition to their perceived residence fairness – jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” – and this contributed to the next housing bust, since so many owners had unfavorable fairness of their properties when home costs declined.

Right here is the quarterly improve in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Accounts of the USA – Z.1 (typically known as the Circulation of Funds report) launched immediately. Within the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

In Q3 2024, mortgage debt increased $105 billion, up from $99 billion in Q2, and down from the cycle peak of $467 billion in Q2 2021. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.

However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Fairness Withdrawal (MEW).

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