Unemployment rises in lots of states, however so does employment (NFP) progress (report).
Right here’s the diffusion index (imply at 25) for 3 month unemployment price change.
Supply: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.
The dashed line is Wells Fargo’s evaluation of the edge for nationwide recession based mostly on this indicator.
How’s nonfarm payroll employment doing? Right here’s the m/m change, by state.
Supply: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.
Month-on-Month figures are noisy, so listed here are year-on-year (with battleground states outlined in blue):
Supply: BLS, 20 Sept 2024, as edited by creator.
For reference, y/y nationwide NFP progress was 1.5%. Therefore, 5 of seven battleground states have been above the nationwide common, with Michigan lagging.
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