What do completely different measures say concerning the trajectory (relatively than stage) of employment?
For nonfarm payroll employment:
Determine 1: Change since 2023M12 in nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), implied from preliminary benchmark (purple), implied from Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (inexperienced), CPS adjusted to nonfarm payroll idea (blue), CPS adjusted to nonfarm payroll idea, adjusted to include CBO estimates of immigration (pink), QCEW complete coated employment seasonally adjusted by writer utilizing X-13 (chartreuse), all in 000’s. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
For personal nonfarm payroll employment:
Determine 1: Change since 2023M12 in personal nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), implied from preliminary benchmark (purple), from ADP-Stanford Digital Financial system Laboratory (inexperienced), from Enterprise Employment Dynamics (pink sq.), QCEW complete coated employment seasonally adjusted by writer utilizing X-13 (chartreuse), all in 000’s. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.
