Heritage Basis’s EJ Antoni has been describing the hole between the institution NFP sequence and the CPS employment sequence as the premise for proof of mismeasurement of employment by the CES. Goldman Sachs notes at present (Peng, “Revised Immigration Estimates Will Close Much of the Payroll-Household Employment Growth Gap in January”) that new Census estimates of immigration will indicate a giant revision in inhabitants controls used within the CPS employment sequence.
Supply: Peng, “US Daily: Revised Immigration Estimates Will Close Much of the Payroll-Household Employment Growth Gap in January,” US Day by day, Goldman Sachs, 14 January 2025.
By my calculations on what they report, I used to be just about on the mark for what the revised CPS adjusted to NFP idea sequence would appear like by means of mid-2024 (I didn’t have the CBO estimates for July 2024-June 2025 at the moment). The revised CPS sequence adjusted to NFP idea must be moved as much as roughly the place the preliminary benchmark implied NFP is in December.
Determine 1: CES Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment sequence (black), implied preliminary benchmark CES NFP (grey), CPS employment adjusted to NFP idea (inexperienced), and Goldman Sachs implied revision for December (mild inexperienced sq.), all in 000’s, on a log scale. Supply: BLS through FRED, BLS, Goldman Sachs, and creator’s calculations.
Therefore, the bulk (3/4) of the hole between the CES and the adjusted CPS sequence is because of a distinction in estimated inhabitants controls, with the rest of the hole basically accounted for by the overcount within the NFP.
