“Putin’s Central Banker Angers Russian Elite With Rate Hikes”

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Or, “who needs a stinkin’ independent central bank, non-Trump edition.”

Might this text clarify why at 1:30 AM CST as I awaited knowledge on the Russian Central Financial institution’s rate of interest resolution… nothing occurred?

From Bloomberg yesterday (earlier than the choice):

ong feted because the savior of Russia’s economic system within the face of sanctions over the battle in Ukraine, central financial institution Governor Elvira Nabiullina is more and more beneath assault from officers who say she’s now destroying it with file excessive rates of interest.

Nabiullina faces rising criticism inside the Russian political and enterprise elite forward of the financial institution’s last rate-setting assembly of the yr on Friday. Analysts forecast that policymakers might hike the important thing rate of interest to 23% from 21% now, and presumably as excessive as 24% to curb persistent excessive inflation.

So, right here’s the coverage price (purple was what most individuals anticipated, a rise to 23%):

Right here’s November official inflation (m/m):

RU Inflation Rate MoM 20dec24

November inflation at 1.4% m/m is eighteen.2% at an annualized price (y/y is 8.9%).

In case you had been questioning what Romir’s FCMG indicated was inflation (see dialogue right here), you’re out of luck, because the publication of this collection has “ceased”.

So, as Mark Sobel famous, Russia’s economic system appears loads weaker than the reported (official) statistics point out.

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