ADP shocked on the upside (143K vs 124K consensus):
Undecided what this implies, however ADP is outstripping the official sequence, which is itself above the preliminary benchmark.
Determine 1: Personal nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), preliminary benchmark (gentle blue), ADP-Stanford (inexperienced), QCEW (pink), change from 2023M01, in 000’s, s.a. QCEW seasonally adjusted utilizing X-13 in logs. Supply: BLS, ADP through FRED, and writer’s calculations.
Determine 2: Personal nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), preliminary benchmark (gentle blue), ADP-Stanford (inexperienced), QCEW (pink), change from 2023M01, in logs. QCEW seasonally adjusted utilizing X-13 in logs. Supply: BLS, ADP through FRED, and writer’s calculations.
