by Calculated Threat on 5/31/2024 08:57:00 AM
Here’s a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, each by way of April 2024.
CPI Shelter was up 5.5% year-over-year in April, down from 5.6% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Housing (PCE) was up 5.6% YoY in April, down from 5.8% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Since asking rents are principally flat year-over-year, these measures will proceed to sluggish over the following 12 months.
The second graph reveals PCE costs, Core PCE costs and Core ex-housing during the last 6 months (annualized):
Key measures are above the Fed’s goal on a 6-month foundation. Observe: There seems to be some residual seasonality distorting PCE, particularly in January.
