by Calculated Threat on 12/20/2024 09:09:00 AM
Here’s a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, each by November 2024.
CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Since asking rents are largely flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly proceed to say no over the subsequent 12 months.
The second graph exhibits PCE costs, Core PCE costs and Core ex-housing during the last 3 months (annualized):
Key measures are barely under the Fed’s goal on a 3-month foundation. Observe: There seems to be some residual seasonality distorting PCE costs in Q1, particularly in January.
3-month annualized change:
PCE Value Index: 2.1%
Core PCE Costs: 2.5%
Core minus Housing: 2.3%
