One Yr Forward Inflation Expectations

April and Could inflation was overpredicted by year-ahead consumer-based surveys.

Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (purple), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), unit prices (chartreuse), all in %. Could 2024 Michigan commentary is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Skilled Forecasters, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed and NBER. 

The SPF yr forward for Could is at 2.51%, barely above the two.45% that I estimate is according to a 2% PCE deflator inflation. Curiously, with median unit price development again at roughly April 2018 ranges, there’s little proof of a wage-price spiral.