Reader Steven Kopits writes:
Two down quarters in 2021. Typical definition of a recession. I don’t imagine I’ve declared a recession since.
No detrimental quarters in 2021. I believe Mr. Kopits meant 2022. No two consecutive quarters of progress in 2022 (which was Mr. Kopits’ assertion, as late as January 2023, after repeated declarations).
Right here the info, as of 2024Q2 annual replace.
Determine 1: Quarter-on-Quarter annualized progress for actual GDP (daring blue), GDO (tan), GDP+ (inexperienced), calculated at log first variations instances 4. Gentle blue shading denotes a purported recession. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 third launch/annual replace, Philadelphia Fed, and creator’s calculations.
This graph demonstrates why the NBER’s Enterprise Cycle Courting Committee doesn’t put major reliance on GDP as an indicator of recession. (Notice that as of the present classic, there was no two-consecutive-quarter decline in actual GDP; however there was a two quarter decline within the 1947 interval, with no recession declaration.)
