by Calculated Threat on 11/26/2024 10:00:00 AM
The Census Bureau experiences New Residence Gross sales in October had been at a seasonally adjusted annual fee (SAAR) of 610 thousand.
The earlier three months had been revised down, mixed.
Gross sales of latest single-family homes in October 2024 had been at a seasonally adjusted annual fee of 610,000, in accordance
to estimates launched collectively as we speak by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Division of Housing and City
Growth. That is 17.3 p.c beneath the revised September fee of 738,000 and is 9.4 p.c beneath the October 2023 estimate of 673,000.
emphasis added
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
The primary graph exhibits New Residence Gross sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the present gross sales fee.
New house gross sales had been beneath pre-pandemic ranges.
The second graph exhibits New Residence Months of Provide.
The months of provide elevated in October to 9.5 months from 7.7 months in September.
The all-time report excessive was 12.2 months of provide in January 2009. The all-time report low was 3.3 months in August 2020.
That is properly above the highest of the traditional vary (about 4 to six months of provide is regular).
“The seasonally-adjusted estimate of latest homes on the market on the finish of October was 481,000. This represents a
provide of 9.5 months on the present gross sales fee​.”
Gross sales had been properly beneath expectations of 730 thousand SAAR, and gross sales for the three earlier months had been revised down, mixed. I will have extra later as we speak.
