From the CPI launch:
Determine 1: CPI – meals at residence (blue), ERS forecast as of January (crimson triangle), ERS forecast as of August (mild blue sq.), Chained CPI – meals at residence (mild inexperienced), all normalized to 2020M01=1.00. Chained meals at residence CPI element seasonally adjusted by creator utilizing X-13 (in logs). Supply: BLS, USDA ERS, and creator’s calculations.
Observe that meals at residence costs are primarily at January 2024 ranges, no matter utilizing the official CPI, or the chained CPI. Given August costs, the ERS August forecast (primarily based on pre-August launch knowledge) suggests a slight downward motion within the remaining months. Nonetheless, because the prediction interval is 0.4% to 2.0% (for y/y level prediction of 1.2%), value will increase are very doable within the the rest of the 12 months.
How have Midwest costs fared, by comparability. Utilizing the B/C metropolis dimension class, I receive the next image.
Determine 2: CPI – meals at residence nationwide (blue), meals at residence for Midwest (B/C cities) (brown), all normalized to 2020M01=1.00. Midwest at residence meals CPI element seasonally adjusted by creator utilizing X-13 (in logs). Supply: BLS, USDA ERS, and creator’s calculations.
