Massive Mac Nation and Recession since 2022

In a latest paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the height in GDP, correctly measured, was in 2021Q4.

Supply: Antoni and St. Onge (2024).

As famous on this put up, I can not — regardless of my greatest efforts — replicate their outcomes (whereby they declare the suitable deflator for GDP is up 40% as a substitute of BEA reported 21.1%, sine 2019Q1). Nevertheless, if all we produced and consumed (by households, corporations, the federal government, and foreigners) was Massive Mac^TM‘s, then one might argue that we’ve been in recession since 2022 (however are simply popping out in 2024Q2).

Determine 1: US GDP expressed in Massive Macs (brown, left log scale), and in bn.Ch.2017$ (black, proper log scale), each SAAR. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Massive Mac costs interpolated linearly from semi-annual reported costs. Supply: BEA 2024Q2 third launch/annual replace, Economist, NBER, and writer’s calculations. 

Notice that Antoni and St. Onge don’t present a spreadsheet of calculations to indicate how they obtained their 40% enhance in deflator.