Audio right here, at 2:30 roughly. He additionally says personal NFP acquire is all the way down to +56K, whereas personal ex-health care and social providers (all primarily authorities), was solely up +12K. Right here’s the image I get present classic/newest launch:
Determine 1: Change in nonfarm payroll employment (blue), in personal NFP (tan), in personal NFP ex-health care and social providers employment (inexperienced), all in 000’s, s.a. Supply: BLS through FRED and authors calculations.
I couldn’t work out how Kudlow bought his numbers. Then I spotted he’d integrated the downward revisions from earlier months, so he ought to’ve stated “on net” or one thing like that. He additionally talked about the ISM and building numbers (the identical that Peter Schiff had talked about). As I famous, these weren’t statistically important adjustments. In any case, I’ve added Mr. Kudlow to the “recession camp” record.
Extra stuff from Kudlow: bizarre methods to calculate job beneficial properties, no recession in Dec. 2007, and so forth.
