Jay Powell’s large week

Hey and welcome to the working week.

The week forward is a major one for central banks on each side of the pond, with the Federal Reserve and the Financial institution of England every set to announce rate of interest choices. First up on Wednesday is the Fed, the place it could appear the query is not if there might be a fee minimize, however relatively by how a lot.

Whereas markets on Friday ascribed a 57 per cent chance to a quarter-point minimize, traders had sharply elevated their bets on a half-percentage-point rate of interest, because the US central financial institution makes strikes to decrease borrowing prices for the primary time in additional than 4 years.

Information launched final Tuesday confirmed that US inflation fell to 2.5 per cent in August. “Disinflation is an imperfect journey but it’s certainly happening,” Kristina Hooper, chief international market strategist at Invesco, instructed the FT final week.

Within the UK, my colleague Valentina Romei reported that public confidence within the BoE’s technique to deal with inflation took a optimistic flip in August, for the primary time in additional than two years, in response to official information forward of the financial institution’s fee determination that can happen on Thursday.

Markets largely count on the BoE to maintain UK charges on maintain, however underwhelming figures from final Tuesday’s GDP report for July have barely elevated the chances of a fee minimize. Earlier this month, Michael Saunders, senior financial adviser at Oxford Economics and a former exterior member of the BoE’s Financial Coverage Committee, theorised that the UK’s rate-cutting cycle may very well be faster than anticipated. He concluded that “market pricing currently implies that Bank Rate will fall to about 3.75% at end-2025 and stay around 3.5% thereafter”.

In firms information, we will count on half-year outcomes from B&Q and Screwfix proprietor Kingfisher, Q3 outcomes from on-line grocery retailer Ocado and half-year outcomes from clothes retailer Subsequent.

Yet another factor . . . 

Tech lovers who’re unable to launch themselves from the ever-tight shackles of Apple merchandise ought to brace themselves for the vary of latest units that can hit shops on Friday, together with the iPhone 16, Apple Watch Collection 10 and AirPods 4. The corporate got here below fireplace earlier this yr for its alleged use of illegally exported minerals from the war-torn east of the Democratic Republic of Congo. On the time, Apple’s disclosures stated the corporate had “no reasonable basis for concluding” that any of its tin, tungsten and tantalum smelters or refiners “directly or indirectly financed” armed teams within the DRC or adjoining nations.

Apple has been increasing its use of recycled supplies in its merchandise to cut back its consumption of such metals and minerals, which we hope has been mirrored within the launch of its “most innovative line-up yet”.

Key financial and firm experiences

Here’s a extra full checklist of what to anticipate when it comes to firm experiences and financial information this week.

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

• UK: BoE fee determination

• US: Preliminary jobless claims

• Enterprise insights and affect on the UK financial system statistics

• UK: Annual financial savings statistics

• Outcomes: Subsequent HY, FedEx Q1

Friday

• UK: Public sector funds

• UK: Month-to-month retail gross sales figures

• Japan: Financial coverage assembly determination

• US Labor Division, Bureau of Labor Statistics: State Employment and Unemployment, month-to-month report (Aug 2024)

World occasions

Lastly, here’s a rundown of different occasions and milestones this week.

Monday

Tuesday

• Monetary Occasions and Schroders Enterprise E-book of the yr shortlist introduced Atone for the longlist right here.

• Italy: Milan Vogue Week begins

• UK: Inaugural Sky Arts Awards

Wednesday

Thursday

• UK: BMW PGA Championship will get below approach

• UN Safety Council discusses Israeli settlements

• St Kitts and Nevis: Independence Day

Friday

• US: First states start early in-person voting in presidential election

• UK: Reform chief Nigel Farage speaks at his celebration’s nationwide convention

• Brazil: G20 tourism ministers assembly

Saturday

• Sri Lanka: presidential election the place latest polls have projected a powerful displaying for Individuals’s Liberation Entrance chief Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

• US: Republican VP nominee JD Vance speaks at Tucker Carlson Stay Tour cease in Pennsylvania

• World Alzheimer’s Day

Sunday

• UK: Labour celebration convention commences

• UN Summit of the Future begins

• Singapore: F1 Grand Prix

• US: NYC Local weather Week begins