by Calculated Threat on 12/27/2024 08:11:00 AM
Earlier I posted some questions on my weblog for subsequent 12 months: Ten Financial Questions for 2025. A few of these questions concern actual property (stock, home costs, housing begins, new residence gross sales), and I posted ideas on these within the e-newsletter (others like GDP and employment shall be on this weblog).
I am including some ideas and predictions for every query.
Here’s a evaluate of the Ten Financial Questions for 2024.
7) Wage Development: Wage progress was strong in 2024, up 4.0% year-over-year as of November. How a lot will wages enhance in 2025?
Probably the most adopted wage indicator is the “Average Hourly Earnings” from the Present Employment Statistics (CES) (aka “Establishment”) month-to-month employment report.
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
The graph exhibits the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all non-public workers. There was an enormous enhance in the beginning of the pandemic as decrease paid workers had been let go, after which the pandemic associated spike reversed a 12 months later.
Actual wage progress has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in November 2024. Though wage progress was above expectations in November, the development is clearly down.
