Has American Financial Output Been in Decline since 2022?

That is the premise of a new paper by Peter St. Onge and EJ Antoni. I’ve been looking for a deflator that may yield that US GDP in 2024Q2 is 2.5% under 2019Q1 ranges. Based mostly on their dialogue of their paper, in addition to a video by Dr. St. Onge, I have tried calculating a consumption deflator that’s primarily based on home costs and mortgage charges, utilizing the Huge Mac worth (which Dr. St. Onge lauds in his video as an alternative choice to official statistics or PWT knowledge), and quick meals costs (particularly, the meals away from residence/restricted companies eating places part of the CPI).

Determine 1: GDP in Ch.2017$ (daring black), utilizing various consumption deflator, housing-in-PCE weights (gentle blue), in 2017 quick meals$ (inexperienced), in 2017 Huge Macs (brown), and in 2017% per Antoni-St.Onge (purple sq.), all in billions. Huge Mac costs interpolated linearly. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BEA, BLS, NBER, and writer’s calculations.

Deflating by quick meals costs appears to return closest to the Antoni-St. Onge estimate.