Convention Board’s Confidence Index exceeds consensus (103.3 > 100.9), with July index revised up. Right here’re August readings for confidence, sentiment and information.
Determine 1: College of Michigan Client Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Client Confidence (tan, left scale), each demeaned and normalized by normal deviation (for the displayed pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Day by day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The Information Index statement for August is thru 8/25/2024. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: U.Mich by way of FRED, Convention Board by way of Investing.com, SF Fed, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
Right here’s a close-up on what has occurred to sentiment for the reason that Democratic Presidential candidate has switched.
Determine 1: Change since July 2024 in College of Michigan Client Sentiment – Democrats (blue), in Client Sentiment – Republican (purple), and Convention Board Client Confidence (chartreuse), Supply: U.Mich, Convention Board by way of Investing.com, and creator’s calculations.
Motion in sentiment has diverged for Democrats vs. Republicans.
