Employment progress is slowing. Even taking the preliminary benchmark at face worth, we’re not in recession as of mid-August (when the survey is taken).
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (daring blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (daring blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 2nd launch, S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9/3/2024 launch), and writer’s calculations.
