Elon Musk had an eventful 2024, what along with his arduous push into right-wing politics and leveraging his X social media platform and appreciable affect to assist Donald Trump win the presidential election.
Placing politics apart for a second, it’s price specializing in one other Musk pastime: making guarantees for Tesla.
The Tesla CEO’s guarantees — and repeated missed deadlines — have turn into a major thread within the Tesla storyline. They usually’ve at all times had an eye-popping high quality that captured the creativeness of traders and helped drive up the worth of Tesla inventory, giving the corporate a valuation of $1.3 trillion. There was his declare in 2015 that Tesla automobiles could be self-driving in two years, that cross-country driverless road-trips could be enabled by the top of 2017, and that Tesla homeowners would be capable of earn cash through a large driverless ride-hailing community in 2020.
And whereas Tesla has cemented its place in historical past books because of constructing and promoting hundreds of thousands of electrical automobiles, not one of the above guarantees (nor many others) have come to move.
However that hasn’t stopped Musk from making extra guarantees in 2024. Right here’s an accounting of these guarantees and when he expects them to turn into actuality.
The $25,000 EV
In 2024 alone, Musk pledged to unveil a $25,000 EV, then scrapped it in April to prioritize a robotaxi prototype — a choice that led to mass layoffs as Tesla pursued its “next phase of growth.”
Musk has flip-flopped on whether or not the reasonably priced EV would ever come to market. However throughout Tesla’s third-quarter earnings name, Musk mentioned the thought of constructing a $25,000 automobile with a steering wheel and pedals is “pointless” and “silly.” He mentioned the one automobile he’d promote at that worth level could be the Cybercab.
In the course of the name, an analyst requested if Tesla would make a lower-cost EV that’s not the Cybercab, and Musk replied that the entire firm’s vehicles shifting ahead could be autonomous. He additionally mentioned that of the 7 million automobiles Tesla has constructed up to now, the “vast majority” are “capable of autonomy,” and that Tesla is “currently making on the order of 35,000 autonomous vehicles a week.” Musk is clearly utilizing a unfastened definition of autonomy right here, as a result of Tesla nonetheless doesn’t produce automobiles which might be secure to make use of and not using a human behind the wheel.
(Flashback: Musk initially promised in 2016, in a since-deleted submit on Tesla’s web site, that “All Tesla Cars Being Produced Now Have Full Self-Driving Hardware,” and that solely a software program replace could be wanted to show common previous Teslas into self-driving vehicles. That didn’t occur, and Tesla has needed to improve vehicles with older {hardware}.)
It’s additionally price noting that in that earnings name, Musk mentioned that he expects automobile progress to achieve 20% to 30% in 2025 because of “lower cost vehicles” and the “advent of autonomy.”
Begin manufacturing on the Cybercab by 2025 or 2026
Tesla unveiled 20 Cybercab prototypes at a flashy Hollywood occasion in October, and Musk took the chance to share some plans for the automobiles, in addition to Tesla’s so-called Full Self-Driving (FSD) software program. FSD is Tesla’s superior driver help system that may carry out many automated driving duties, however nonetheless requires a human to stay attentive behind the wheel and take over if wanted.
Musk informed clients they’d be capable of sooner or later purchase a robotaxi — a two-door, two-seat automobile with no steering wheel or pedals — for lower than $30,000. He additionally mentioned that the common working price of the Cybercab will cut back over time to solely $0.20 per mile. And he mentioned Tesla would begin manufacturing on the purpose-built AVs in 2025 or 2026.
(Flashback: Musk mentioned in 2022 that Tesla would mass-produce robotaxis by 2024. Earlier than that, in 2019, he mentioned that Tesla would have 1,000,000 robotaxis on roads by 2020. Musk has promised that Tesla would resolve full self-driving “next year” since not less than 2016.)
A couple of weeks later, throughout Tesla’s third-quarter earnings name, Musk mentioned Tesla would attain “volume production in ’26,” and that the corporate was finally “aiming for at least 2 million units a year of Cybercab.”
Present federal rules that require automobiles to be constructed with sure security requirements, like handbook human controls, might be roadblocks for Tesla to mass produce its Cybercabs. The Nationwide Freeway Visitors Security Administration not too long ago proposed new guidelines that will fast-track exemptions for such automobiles, however they’d require firms to share extra information with the company, like crash reporting. At the moment, automakers are required to report crashes when ADAS or autonomous driving tech is engaged.
Musk has railed towards the rule earlier than, and President-elect Donald Trump’s transition workforce is reportedly exploring scrapping it.
Robovan in improvement
Throughout Tesla’s robotaxi reveal, the corporate additionally confirmed traders a Robovan prototype. On the time Musk didn’t share any concrete plans for the automobile, however in November he posted on X that the Robovan is in improvement, together with “some other things.”
(Flashback: In 2016, Musk mentioned Tesla would begin constructing a minibus utilizing the Mannequin X chassis in two to 3 years.)
“Unsupervised FSD” and autonomous ride-hail in 2025
On the occasion, Musk additionally promised that Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y homeowners would be capable of use an “unsupervised” model of FSD in California and Texas in 2025.
It wasn’t, and nonetheless isn’t, clear what Musk meant by “unsupervised” FSD. At the moment, Tesla’s FSD remains to be not absolutely autonomous, and to dispel any confusion, Tesla this 12 months started referring to the software program as “supervised FSD.” Eradicating the supervision may imply that Tesla plans to take away the motive force, or it may imply that Tesla plans to supply a Degree 3 autonomous system that permits drivers to go hands-off, eyes-off for a portion of their trip.
Throughout Tesla’s third-quarter earnings name, Musk took the promise of unsupervised FSD a step additional. He mentioned he hopes to launch a service that can let individuals hail self-driving Teslas in California and Texas in 2025. He additionally claimed Tesla had begun testing the service within the Bay Space with workers.
(Context: There are a number of tiers of permits required to check and deploy autonomous automobiles in California. Tesla has held a allow to check AVs with a security driver within the entrance seat since 2015, however the Division of Motor Automobiles informed TechCrunch in October that Tesla final reported utilizing that allow in 2019.)
It’s not clear if Tesla plans to launch this ride-hail service with its robotaxis or with current Tesla Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y homeowners. Tesla’s first-quarter earnings presentation included a mock-up of a future Tesla ride-hail app, and the corporate has for years teased the thought of a ride-hailing community utilizing Teslas that had been up to date to drive absolutely autonomously. The concept is much like Uber, solely Tesla homeowners would add their correctly outfitted self-driving automobiles to the automaker’s ride-hailing app to make further money when the vehicles will not be in use. Tesla would take 25% to 30% of the income.
Lastly, throughout Tesla’s first-quarter earnings name, Musk mentioned Tesla was in talks with a “major automaker” to license FSD, however to date has not introduced any such offers.
“Over a thousand Optimus robots working at Tesla” in 2025
Musk has made some out-there guarantees about Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robotic. Throughout Tesla’s annual shareholder assembly, Musk promised that Tesla would transfer into “limited production” of the Optimus subsequent 12 months, with “over 1,000, or a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla” in 2025. He additionally mentioned he expects Optimus to be on sale by 2026. In a submit on X, the billionaire govt added that he expects to have extra Optimus bots obtainable to be used by different firms in 2026.
He didn’t specify if the bots could be working absolutely autonomously, or if they’d be remotely managed by people, as they had been throughout Tesla’s robotaxi reveal occasion in October.
(Context: Whereas humanoid robots are enhancing to the purpose of with the ability to autonomously full particular duties, many specialists say generalized robotics remains to be years away because of a scarcity of coaching information.)
Except for manufacturing guarantees, Musk additionally predicted that Optimus may sooner or later raise Tesla’s market cap to $25 trillion. That’s roughly seven instances the present market caps of Apple and Nvidia. On the finish of December, Tesla’s market cap was round $1.42 trillion, which is nearly a 160% enhance from the $550 billion market cap earlier than Trump gained the presidential election.
Have we missed something? Be happy to achieve out to rebecca.bellan@techcrunch.com.
