Disingenuousnous Watch | Econbrowser

EJ Antoni/Heritage writes:

One other month, one other report excessive for the variety of gov’t workers

Properly, sure. After all, inhabitants can also be at a report excessive. So too is nominal GDP. What to do…what to do… possibly normalize? Perhaps select an extended pattern interval?

Determine 1: Authorities workers, 000’s (blue, left scale), and authorities workers as a ratio of inhabitants (tan, proper scale), each s.a. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, BEA through FRED, NBER. 

That being stated, I’m grateful the EJ Antoni/Heritage has stopped utilizing the CPS measure of presidency employment (which he did right here). An inspection of the CES and CPS counterparts highlights the truth that the CPS measure is unreliable at excessive frequencies.

Determine 2: Authorities workers from CES (blue), from CPS (crimson), each s.a. S NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, NBER.