Sharp reactions to Convention Board client confidence index as we speak. Right here’s some context for this motion, in addition to that within the U.Michigan survey of financial sentiment.
Determine 1: College of Michigan Client Sentiment (blue, left scale), Convention Board Client Confidence (tan, left scale), Gallup Financial Confidence (gentle inexperienced, left scale), all demeaned and normalized by normal deviation (for the displayed pattern interval); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Every day Information Sentiment Index (black, proper scale). The Information Index statement for April is thru 4/25/2024. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: U.Mich by way of FRED, Convention Board by way of Investing.com, Gallup, SF Fed, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
Whereas all indices dropped (as did the information sentiment index) in April, the Convention Board index is considerably above pandemic ranges. The shock is that this index hasn’t proven a lot response to the more and more constructive information sentiment (whereas the U.Michigan and Gallup indices have).
