Chinese language residents unconvinced by official progress claims

Good morning and glad Friday. In at the moment’s publication:

• Chinese language residents doubt official progress claims

• Has China already reached peak oil?

• Uproar in India over lengthy work hours

We begin in China, the place a slew of financial information is due at the moment, together with GDP figures anticipated to point out the world’s second-largest financial system expanded at a brisk tempo of about 5 per cent in 2024.

However many Chinese language individuals who work in sectors from banking and native authorities to eating places and ride-hailing are unconvinced by official progress claims — and say present circumstances really feel extra like a recession.

“I don’t know where this growth is supposed to be coming from,” an proprietor of a printing and promoting firm in Beijing instructed the FT.

“The authorities can say whatever they want,” he stated, suggesting the official information was “blind to reality”. “For me, 2024 has been the worst year in my 20-plus years of running this business.”

Economists, and even senior officers, have lengthy questioned the accuracy of China’s GDP numbers, that are launched by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics and nearly at all times hit annual authorities targets with uncanny accuracy. Right here’s what they are saying in regards to the nation’s progress figures.

• Chinese language property market: Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian miner, has pointed to “signs of stabilisation” in Chinese language property after weak demand from the nation’s development sector hit the value of iron ore final yr.

And right here’s what else we’re conserving tabs on at the moment and over the weekend:

• Center East: Israel’s cupboard will meet at the moment to debate the approval of the Gaza ceasefire, whereas a far-right minister has threatened to stop if the federal government implements the deal.

• Russia-Iran ties: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian maintain talks in Moscow, the place they’re anticipated to signal a strategic partnership pact. (Reuters)

• Asean assembly: International ministers collect in Langkawi, Malaysia on Saturday.

• TikTok: A US ban on the favored Chinese language-owned app is because of take impact on Sunday.

How properly did you retain up with the information this week? Take our quiz.

5 extra high tales

1. Washington has blacklisted Zhipu, China’s most distinguished start-up creating massive language fashions for synthetic intelligence, alleging that it was advancing Chinese language navy capabilities via the combination of AI analysis. The beginning-up stated it “strongly disagreed” with the US transfer, which it stated “lacked factual basis”. Learn the total story.

• Extra on AI: Donald Trump’s decide for secretary of the inside warned the US might lose the “AI arms race” to China except it boosts technology of vitality from fossil fuels and stabilises its electrical energy grid.

• TSMCS outcomes: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Firm has minimize its profitability goal regardless of roaring demand for AI chips.

2. Donald Trump’s nominee to be Treasury secretary stated the US ought to enhance sanctions on Russian oil producers to drive Moscow to barter with Ukraine. The feedback yesterday by Scott Bessent pushed up oil costs, as merchants thought of the prospect of tighter world crude provide. Right here’s what the Treasury nominee stated about China throughout his affirmation listening to.

3. Trump might use the approval of cross-border offers to press overseas governments into aligning with US coverage priorities, dealmakers and buyers have warned. One European banker stated: “The people in this administration have no compunction about using every lever at their disposal to achieve their aims.”

• Nippon Metal: An anti-Japan tirade by the pinnacle of US steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs is symptomatic of the abrasive surroundings brewing within the Trump period, writes Leo Lewis.

4. The UK overseas secretary and residential secretary have intervened on China’s planning software for an unlimited new London embassy, signalling their help whereas outlining circumstances for the proposed web site. Learn extra about Beijing’s deliberate mega-embassy in London.

5. Activist brief vendor Nathan Anderson, well-known for his campaigns towards Adani Group, Tremendous Micro and Nikola, is shutting down his agency Hindenburg Analysis seven years after he based it. Right here’s why.

The Massive Learn

International oil has underpinned China’s financial rise, because the nation constructed the world’s largest automotive business from scratch, new railways and air journey networks, and hundreds of skyscrapers. However China’s thirst for crude could also be reaching a peak ahead of anticipated, a growth that has despatched shockwaves via the oil market.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Do Indians work an excessive amount of?: An govt within the nation has gone viral for saying employees ought to be within the workplace on Sundays.

• US oligarchs: The emergence of a robust tech elite near Donald Trump has jarring echoes with Russia, writes John Thornhill.

• Life after battle: The pleasure sweeping Gaza on the anticipated halt to the devastating Israel-Hamas battle is blended with grief over months of dying and destruction.

Chart of the day

Native smartphone makers Vivo and Huawei leapfrogged Apple to develop into the highest two sellers within the Chinese language market final yr, dealing a blow to the iPhone maker because it struggles to introduce AI options on the mainland.

Take a break from the information . . . 

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