From BOFIT:
Russian financial progress slowed considerably in June, however sustained its decrease tempo in July. In accordance with Russian financial improvement ministry’s preliminary estimate, on-year GDP progress in June and July was round 3 %, down from 4.5 % within the April-Could interval. The overall indicator comprising Russia’s 5 core manufacturing sectors urged that the amount of seasonally-adjusted financial output contracted on-month in June, however the contraction stopped in July.
The quantity of seasonally-adjusted industrial output fell additional in July, nevertheless. Industrial output has declined within the newest months, each within the extractive industries and manufacturing. Progress additionally appears to have stalled in building and retail gross sales, with no hints of restoration in July. The speedy enhance in agricultural output (5 % y-o-y) supported financial output total in July.
…
The most recent outlooks of most main institutional forecasters printed in July or August see Russian GDP rising within the vary of three–3.5 % this 12 months and round 1.5 % subsequent 12 months. The most recent CBR forecast sees Russian GDP growing by 3.5–4 % this 12 months and 0.5–1.5 % subsequent 12 months.
Russian industrial output has declined in latest months
Sources: Rosstat, CEIC, BOFIT.
Be aware that as output decelerates, the Central Financial institution of Russia has raised the coverage price from 18% to 19% (as of 9/13).
TradingEconomics tags anticipated inflation at 12.9% (I don’t know the way they calculate this quantity). Taken at face worth, that means 6% actual rates of interest.
