From Polymarket, accessed 4pm CT right now:
So low chance…then again, it is a bunch of non-American residents betting on a US financial occasion. For comparability, Polymarket (which can’t function within the US) signifies 52-46 Trump/Harris, whereas PredictIt (which might function within the US) charges 52-52. Polymarket has constantly predicted the next chance of Trump profitable (vs. Harris) than PredicIt.
I have to confess some uncertainty concerning the betting, since end result is to be decided by 12/31/2024, however we received’t have This autumn GDP till January 2025…Listed here are the foundations:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Financial Evaluation (BEA) reviews two consecutive quarters of unfavorable GDP development in the US throughout the calendar yr 2024, based mostly on the seasonally adjusted annual charge. This consists of any two successive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-This autumn. The willpower might be based mostly on essentially the most not too long ago launched report by the BEA for every quarter.
If GDP knowledge for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised earlier than the discharge of the Advance Estimate for This autumn, the latest revision out there might be used for market decision as a substitute of the preliminary Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the discharge of the This autumn Advance Estimate is not going to be thought-about for any quarters, together with This autumn itself.
The first decision supply for this market is the BEA’s official knowledge on the seasonally adjusted annualized % change in quarterly US actual GDP, as out there on their web site. A consensus of credible reporting might also be used if there’s ambiguity within the official knowledge.
