In nominal greenback phrases. Thanks, Trump.
Notes: Tax improve related to introduced Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China assuming a unitary value elasticity of import demand (orange bar), and assuming zero (orange bar plus gentle orange bar). Supply: graphic from Factcheck (2012), modified by creator.
Over the weekend, US taxes roughly $2.4 trn value of products (2023 quantities). That’s the most important one 12 months tax improve in greenback phrases since… ever, at $364 bn (if Trump goes by with plans). Taxes collected by CPB, and going into the US Treasury. Automated escalation clauses if the goal international locations retaliate (which Canada already has declared).
That’s in nominal greenback phrases. As a share of GDP, it’s 1.2%, 1% assuming unit elasticity.
I be aware that with the 30 day deferral for Mexico, it’s nonetheless a $245 bn improve in taxes in impact as of Tuesday.
