by Calculated Danger on 1/05/2025 10:27:00 AM
Earlier I posted some questions on my weblog for subsequent 12 months: Ten Financial Questions for 2025. A few of these questions concern actual property (stock, home costs, housing begins, new dwelling gross sales), and I posted ideas on these within the publication (others like GDP and employment will likely be on this weblog).
I am including some ideas and predictions for every query.
Here’s a evaluate of the Ten Financial Questions for 2024.
2) Employment: By means of November 2024, the financial system added 2.0 million jobs in 2024. That is down from 3.0 million jobs added in 2023, 4.8 million in 2022, and seven.3 million in 2021 (2021 and 2022 have been the 2 greatest years ever), however nonetheless a stable 12 months for employment positive factors. How a lot will job development sluggish in 2025? Or will the financial system lose jobs?
| Change in Payroll Jobs per 12 months (000s) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Complete, Nonfarm | Non-public | Public | |
| 1997 | 3,406 | 3,211 | 195 |
| 1998 | 3,047 | 2,734 | 313 |
| 1999 | 3,183 | 2,722 | 461 |
| 2000 | 1,937 | 1,673 | 264 |
| 2001 | -1,734 | -2,285 | 551 |
| 2002 | -515 | -748 | 233 |
| 2003 | 125 | 167 | -42 |
| 2004 | 2,039 | 1,892 | 147 |
| 2005 | 2,527 | 2,341 | 186 |
| 2006 | 2,091 | 1,882 | 209 |
| 2007 | 1,145 | 857 | 288 |
| 2008 | -3,548 | -3,728 | 180 |
| 2009 | -5,041 | -4,967 | -74 |
| 2010 | 1,029 | 1,245 | -216 |
| 2011 | 2,066 | 2,378 | -312 |
| 2012 | 2,172 | 2,239 | -67 |
| 2013 | 2,293 | 2,360 | -67 |
| 2014 | 2,999 | 2,872 | 127 |
| 2015 | 2,717 | 2,567 | 150 |
| 2016 | 2,327 | 2,120 | 207 |
| 2017 | 2,111 | 2,031 | 80 |
| 2018 | 2,283 | 2,156 | 127 |
| 2019 | 1,988 | 1,773 | 215 |
| 2020 | -9,274 | -8,224 | -1,050 |
| 2021 | 7,245 | 6,853 | 392 |
| 2022 | 4,528 | 4,229 | 299 |
| 2023 | 3,013 | 2,304 | 709 |
| 2024 | 2,2741 | 1,7841 | 4901 |
| 112 Month Change Ending in November. | |||
The excellent news is job market nonetheless has momentum heading into 2025.
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
The dangerous information – for job development – is that the labor power will develop slowly in 2025!
This graph reveals the roles added monthly since January 2021.
There was sturdy job development in 2021 and 2022 because the financial system bounced again from the pandemic recession.
Job development slowed in 2023 however was nonetheless traditionally sturdy. Job development slowed additional in 2024 however was nonetheless stable.
So, my forecast is for positive factors of round 1.0 million jobs in 2025. This can most likely be the slowest job development since 2010 (excluding the 2020 pandemic job losses).
Listed here are the Ten Financial Questions for 2025 and some predictions:
• Query #3 for 2025: What’s going to the unemployment charge be in December 2025?
• Query #4 for 2025: What’s going to the participation charge be in December 2025?
• Query #5 for 2025: What’s going to the YoY core inflation charge be in December 2025?
• Query #6 for 2025: What’s going to the Fed Funds charge be in December 2025?
• Query #7 for 2025: How a lot will wages enhance in 2025?
• Query #9 for 2025: What’s going to occur with home costs in 2025?
• Query #10 for 2025: Will stock enhance additional in 2025?
