NBER BCDC indicators mentioned right here. Various under.
Determine 1: Implied nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (daring blue), civilian employment adjusted utilizing CBO immigration estimates (orange), manufacturing manufacturing (crimson), private revenue excluding present transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (gentle blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve through FRED, BEA 2024Q3 third launch, S&P International Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (12/2/2024 launch), and writer’s calculations.
Early benchmark and manufacturing recommend a slowdown. Different indicators don’t.
