5 Financial Causes to be Grateful

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Listed here are 5 financial causes to be grateful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who began doing this years in the past)

1) The Unemployment Price is at 4.1%

The unemployment price was at 4.1% in October. 

The unemployment price is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the very best price because the Nice Despair).

The unemployment price is up from 3.4% in April 2023 – and that matched the bottom unemployment price since 1969!

This can be a traditionally low unemployment price.


2) Low unemployment claims.

WeeklyClaimsNov272024This graph exhibits the 4-week shifting common of weekly claims since 1971.

Weekly claims had been at 213,000 final week.

The dashed line on the graph is the present 4-week common.

Although weekly claims have bounced round a bit lately, the 4-week common is near the bottom stage in 50 years.

3) Mortgage Debt as a P.c of GDP has Fallen Considerably

Mortgage Debt as Percent GDP This graph exhibits family mortgage debt as a % of GDP.  

Notice this graph is thru Q2 2024 was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 2020 GDP.

Mortgage debt is up $2.34 trillion from the height through the housing bubble, however, as a % of GDP is at 45.9% – down from Q1 – and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP through the housing bust.

4) Mortgage Delinquency Price Close to the Lowest Stage since at the very least 1979

MBA National Delinquency Survey

This graph, based mostly on knowledge from the MBA by means of Q3 2024, exhibits the % of loans delinquent by days overdue.  
Though mortgage delinquencies are up a bit from Q2 2023 – the bottom stage because the MBA survey began in 1979 – delinquencies are nonetheless traditionally very low.
Notice: The sharp improve in 2020 within the 90-day bucket was as a result of loans in forbearance (included as delinquent however not reported to the credit score bureaus).

The % of loans within the foreclosures course of are near the document low.

5) Family Debt burdens at Low Ranges (ex-pandemic)

Financial ObligationsThis graph, based mostly on knowledge from the Federal Reserve, exhibits the Family Debt Service Ratio (DSR), and the DSR for mortgages (blue) and shopper debt (yellow).

The Family debt service ratio was at 11.5% in Q2 2024, barely beneath the pre-pandemic stage of 11.6%.
The DSR for mortgages (blue) has elevated lately however is near the pre-pandemic stage.

This knowledge suggests combination family money movement is in a strong place.

Completely happy Thanksgiving to All!

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