by Calculated Threat on 11/10/2024 09:58:00 AM
From Dodge Information Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Retreats 5% in October
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Development Community, decreased 5.3% in October to 197.2 (2000=100) from the revised September studying of 208.2. Over the month, business planning fell 6.7% and institutional planning declined 2.0%.
“In addition to data center planning normalizing, a moderate pullback in the number of planning projects for several other nonresidential sectors also contributed to the decline in the Dodge Momentum Index for October,” acknowledged Sarah Martin, affiliate director of forecasting at Dodge Development Community. “Regardless, owners and developers remain confident in next year’s market conditions and the planning queue remains poised to spur stronger construction activity in 2025, following deeper rate cuts by the Fed.”
Most business classes confronted declines all through October, except for lodge planning – which continued to achieve momentum. On the institutional facet, schooling and public planning exercise expanded, offset by weaker exercise in healthcare, leisure and non secular tasks. This month, the DMI was 13% larger than in October of 2023. The business phase was up 18% from year-ago ranges, whereas the institutional phase was up 3% over the identical interval. The affect of knowledge facilities on the DMI this 12 months has been substantial. If we take away all information middle tasks from January to October, business planning could be down 4% from year-ago ranges, and the whole DMI could be down 2%.
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The DMI is a month-to-month measure of the worth of nonresidential constructing tasks going into planning, proven to guide development spending for nonresidential buildings by a full 12 months.
emphasis added
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
This graph exhibits the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 197.2 in October, down from 208.2 the earlier month.
In response to Dodge, this index leads “construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year”. This index suggests a slowdown in early 2025, however a pickup in mid-2025.
Business development is usually a lagging financial indicator.
