Non-public NFP Nowcast | Econbrowser

Based mostly on ADP-Stanford Digital Financial system Lab sequence for October.

Determine 1: Non-public nonfarm payroll employment (daring black), nowcast based mostly on error correction mannequin utilizing ADP-Stanford Digital Financial system Lab sequence (blue), +/- 1 normal error strains (grey), Bloomberg consensus as of 10/31 (pink sq.), all in 000’s, s.a. Supply: BLS, ADP through FRED, and writer’s calculations. 

The ECM used is estimated over 2021M07-2024M09, and has an adjusted R2 of 0.67, SER of 0.002. Utilizing a easy regression of first log distinction BLS on contemporaneous ADP sequence yields a nearly equivalent nowcast.

Word that this can be a mechanical nowcast, based mostly solely on previous BLS knowledge and ADP knowledge. There is no such thing as a accounting for strikes and hurricanes. Goldman Sachs (Walker/Rindels) notes:

ADP’s measure of employment development has traditionally been much less delicate to pure disasters and Homebase’s knowledge possible misses the affect of the present strikes as a result of its pattern is primarily made up of owner-operator-managed meals and beverage, retail, and repair companies.