by Calculated Threat on 10/29/2024 05:30:00 PM
The Census Bureau launched the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2024 as we speak.
The outcomes of this survey have been considerably distorted by the pandemic in 2020.
This report is incessantly talked about by analysts and the media to trace family formation, the homeownership price, and the home-owner and rental emptiness charges. Nevertheless, there are severe questions concerning the accuracy of this survey.
This survey would possibly present the development, however I would not depend on absolutely the numbers. Analysts most likely should not use the HVS to estimate the surplus vacant provide or family formation, or depend on the homeownership price, besides as a information to the development.
Nationwide emptiness charges within the third quarter 2024 have been 6.9 p.c for rental housing and 1.0 p.c for
home-owner housing. The rental emptiness price was not statistically completely different from the speed within the third quarter
2023 (6.6 p.c) and never statistically completely different from the speed within the second quarter 2024 (6.6 p.c).The home-owner emptiness price of 1.0 p.c was increased than the speed within the third quarter 2023 (0.8 p.c)
and never statistically completely different from the speed within the second quarter 2024 (0.9 p.c).The homeownership price of 65.6 p.c was not statistically completely different from the speed within the third quarter 2023
(66.0 p.c) and nearly the identical as the speed within the second quarter 2024 (65.6 p.c).
emphasis added
Click on on graph for bigger picture.
The HVS homeownership price was unchanged at 65.6% in Q3, from 65.6% in Q2. Â
The leads to Q2 and Q3 2020 have been distorted by the pandemic and needs to be ignored.
The HVS home-owner emptiness elevated to 1.0% in Q3 from 0.9% in Q2.
As soon as once more – this most likely exhibits the overall development, however I would not depend on absolutely the numbers.
The home-owner emptiness price declined sharply through the pandemic and contains houses which can be vacant and on the market (so this mirrors the low however rising ranges of present house stock).
The rental emptiness price was elevated to six.9% in Q3 from 6.6% in Q2. That is up from the low of 5.6% in 2021 and 2022.
The quarterly HVS is the timeliest survey on households, however there are numerous questions concerning the accuracy of this survey.
