The CEPR-EABCN is one arbiter of enterprise cycle chronologies within the Euro Space. The most recent announcement is from April 17, 2024. What do more moderen indicators recommend (a partial survey)?
GDP and employment:
Industrial manufacturing and the unemployment charge:
With employment rising via Q1 and unemployment declining from 2023 onward, it’s laborious to declare a recession in place — even considering the very fact all these knowledge might be revised over time.
Nowcasts point out close to zero progress in Q3. First the Banca d’Italia/CEPR eurocoin is barely constructive as of September launch (October 4), at 0.14% q/q (0.6% q/q AR).
Supply: BdI.
Nowcasts from a number of researchers initially/at the moment on the Federal Reserve Board (Cascaldi-Garcia et al., 2023)) present close to zero progress in Q3 and This fall (as of 4 October).
Supply: Cascaldi-Garcia et al. (2023), accessed 10/7/2024.
Supply: Cascaldi-Garcia et al. (2023), accessed 10/7/2024.
This nowcast signifies -0.4% and 0% q/q AR in Q3 and This fall respectively.
Visualization of a number of euro space macro indicators right here.
