Personal nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (massive time): 223K vs 125K consensus (whole NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Furthermore, the earlier two months’ knowledge had been revised a complete of 46K. Right here’s a graph of reported September and August launch numbers, vs. Bloomberg consensus and my nowcast (reported yesterday).
Determine 1: Personal NFP, September launch (daring blue), August launch (black), nowcast primarily based on ADP (blue), +/- 1 std error band (grey), Bloomberg consensus (pink +). Supply: BLS, Bloomberg, writer’s calculations.
The implied stage of September employment was properly inside the 68% (plus/minus 1 std error) band for the nowcast primarily based on the ADP sequence. Observe the imply revision (imply absolute revision) going from 1st to third launch is -30 (50) in 2023.
Extra on the employment launch to come back.
