Might 2024 Brief Time period Vitality Outlook: WTI, gasoline costs

From EIA (Might 7, 2024):

Supply: EIA, STEO (Might 2024).

Notice that the forecast is barely above futures. See Chinn and Coibion (2014) on oil futures forecasting efficiency.

Right here’s the gasoline forecast:

Supply: EIA, STEO (Might 2024).

For context, right here’s common gasoline costs (nominal, actual) within the US:

Determine 1: Value of standard gasoline in $/gallon (blue), and in 2017$/gallon (tan). Relative worth calculated by dividing gasoline worth by core CPI; April core CPI based mostly on Cleveland Fed nowcast of 5/8/2024. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: EIA, BLS, by way of FRED, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and creator’s calculations.