GDP 2nd Launch for Q2

Revised up 0.2 ppts, 0.2 ppts above consensus. Last gross sales up 0.2 ppts. GDO rises 2.1% q/q SAAR.

Determine 1: GDP (daring black), GDO (tan), and GDP+ (inexperienced), GDPNow of 8/26 (sky blue sq.), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP, GDO based mostly on 2nd launch. GDP+ iterated on 2019Q4 GDP stage. Supply: BEA, Philadelphia Fed (July launch), Atlanta Fed, creator’s calculations.

Determine 2: Quarter-on-Quarter development of GDP (daring black), GDPNow of 8/26 (sky blue sq.), remaining gross sales (crimson), all SAAR. GDP based mostly on second launch. Supply: BEA, Atlanta Fed, creator’s calculations.

So, GDP and remaining gross sales development exceeds pattern in Q2, and GDPNow as of three days in the past is at pattern. GDP > remaining gross sales implies some retrenchment in Q3 given stock accumulation.