by Calculated Danger on 6/07/2024 09:08:00 AM
The headline jobs quantity within the Might employment report was properly above expectations, nevertheless March and April payrolls had been revised down by 15,000 mixed.  The participation price and employment inhabitants ratio decreased, and the unemployment price elevated to 4.0%.
Building employment elevated 21 thousand and is now 613 thousand above the pre-pandemic degree.Â
Manufacturing employment elevated 8 thousand and is now 185 thousand above the pre-pandemic degree.
For the reason that general participation price is impacted by each cyclical (recession) and demographic (ageing inhabitants, youthful folks staying at school) causes, right here is the employment-population ratio for the important thing working age group: 25 to 54 years outdated.
The 25 to 54 years outdated participation price elevated in Might to 83.6% from 83.5% in April, and the 25 to 54 employment inhabitants ratio was unchanged at 80.8% from 80.8% the earlier month.
Common Hourly Wages
The graph exhibits the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all non-public staff from the Present Employment Statistics (CES). Â
Wage development has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% YoY in Might. Â
Half Time for Financial Causes
From the BLS report:
“The variety of folks employed half time for financial causes, at 4.4 million, modified little
in Might. These people, who would have most popular full-time employment, had been working half
time as a result of their hours had been decreased or they had been unable to seek out full-time jobs.“
The variety of individuals working half time for financial causes decreased in Might to 4.42 million from 4.47 million in April. That is barely above pre-pandemic ranges.
These staff are included within the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.4% from 7.4% within the earlier month. That is down from the document excessive in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the bottom degree on document (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This collection began in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% degree in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph exhibits the variety of staff unemployed for 27 weeks or extra.
In accordance with the BLS, there are 1.350 million staff who’ve been unemployed for greater than 26 weeks and nonetheless need a job, up from 1.250 million the earlier month.
That is barely above pre-pandemic ranges.
Job Streak
By way of Might 2024, the employment report indicated constructive job development for 41 consecutive months, placing the present streak in fifth place of the longest job streaks in US historical past (since 1939).
| Headline Jobs, High 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Yr Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 | 2007 | 46 |
| 4 | 1979 | 45 |
| 5 | 20241 | 41 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Abstract:
The headline jobs quantity within the April employment report was properly above expectations, nevertheless, March and April payrolls had been revised down by 15,000 mixed. The participation price and the employment inhabitants ratio decreased, and the unemployment price elevated to 4.0%. One other robust report.
